LONDON – In a bold move that’s shaking up European security discussions, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced yesterday that the UK will hike its defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, up from the current 2.3%. The decision, unveiled in Parliament, comes amid intense pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who’s been hammering NATO allies to pony up more for their own defense. But as the UK steps up, the big question looms: Where do other European nations stand on this call to arms?
Starmer didn’t mince words, telling lawmakers, “Europe is in a new era of insecurity that requires a generational response.” He framed the increase—adding roughly 0.2% to the GDP—as a direct answer to the threats posed by Russia’s actions in Ukraine and Trump’s warnings that the U.S. might pull back its military support. “We must stand by Ukraine, because if we don’t achieve a lasting peace, the economic instability and threats to our security will only grow,” he said, his voice steady amid murmurs in the Commons.
This isn’t just about Britain, though. Trump’s been relentless, reportedly pushing for NATO members to hit 5% of GDP on defense—way above the alliance’s 2% target—during a recent call with European leaders. That pressure’s been felt across the continent, with Starmer’s move seen as a signal for others to follow suit. But the response so far is a mixed bag, revealing deep divides among European nations.
Poland’s already leading the charge as NATO’s biggest spender, dedicating 4.12% of its GDP to defense and planning to bump that to 4.7% this year. Polish President Andrzej Duda has touted a €30 billion defense budget, making it the largest among NATO countries. Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski echoed that commitment, calling defense “our priority” and urging the EU to loosen fiscal rules to allow more military spending without breaking budget caps.
Contrast that with Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz has hesitated to match the UK’s pace. Berlin’s defense spending sits at around 1.5% of GDP, far below the 2% NATO goal, though it’s ramped up since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Posts on X suggest some Germans are pushing for a €200 billion fund to bolster the army, but official statements have been cautious, with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius focusing on coordination with Poland and other NATO allies rather than a sudden surge.
France, under President Emmanuel Macron, is another story. Paris spends about 2% of GDP on defense, consistent with NATO’s target, and Macron’s been vocal about European “strategic autonomy.” But there’s no immediate pledge to hit 2.5% or higher, with Macron prioritizing joint EU defense projects over unilateral hikes. “We’re not free-riding,” a French diplomat told me off the record in Paris last week. “But we need to spend smarter, not just more.”
Italy and Spain lag further behind. Italy’s defense budget hasn’t topped 1.5% of GDP since 2014, relying instead on troop deployments to NATO missions—11,097 personnel abroad last year. Spain’s even lower, with no clear plan to meet the 2% target, let alone Trump’s 5%. Both nations face domestic pressures, with public opinion split on prioritizing defense spending over healthcare and infrastructure.
The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, weighed in earlier this month, admitting Trump’s criticism of Europe’s 1.9% average defense spending has a point. “Every euro spent on schools, healthcare, and welfare is vulnerable if we don’t maintain strong defenses,” she told the BBC, urging more investment to counter Russia’s 9% GDP on defense. But translating that into action across 27 member states is proving tougher than expected, with some pushing for EU-wide fiscal tweaks to fund military growth without breaking budget rules.
Here in London, the mood’s a mix of resolve and uncertainty. Starmer’s announcement, paired with plans to hit 3% of GDP by 2030—subject to economic conditions—has been hailed as a “turning point” for European security, per posts trending on X. But critics, like one MP I spoke with outside Parliament, worry about the cost: “Doubling defense spending could mean deep cuts elsewhere or higher taxes. Can we afford it with Putin’s war still raging?”
Trump’s influence is unmistakable. His call for 5% has rattled Europe, especially after his “highly productive” call with Vladimir Putin, which some fear signals a U.S. tilt toward Russia. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s warning that America “will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship” with NATO allies has only amplified the pressure. Yet, as one senior NATO official told me in Brussels last week, “Trump’s numbers are unrealistic. No one’s hitting 5%—not even the U.S., at 3.5%.”
The stakes are high. Russia’s defense budget, now at 16% of GDP, dwarfs Europe’s, and Ukraine’s war has exposed gaps in ammunition, tech, and coordination. Poland’s surge and the UK’s hike are steps forward, but Europe’s patchwork response risks leaving it vulnerable if U.S. support wanes. As Starmer put it, “We must meet this era together, with strength.” Whether the rest of Europe follows suit—or fractures under the pressure—remains to be seen.
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